/leftypol/ - Leftist Politically Incorrect

Russia today is much weaker than the Romanov Empire, which existed from 1613 to 1917, or the Soviet Union. Russia's biggest problem is Internal: this huge Eurasian country could not create a national identity that would cover its entire population. Millions of Russian citizens are doubtfully loyal to their state, and as soon as Moscow loosens its tight control over local elections, which is likely to happen only when Putin is no longer president, these groups will seek independence. Separatism is a time bomb, which Putin is so afraid of, will explode in 10, 20 years.

Why? Here are the three main reasons:

First, and most importantly, the separatist impulses inside Russia are strong. As two examples, let's take Tatarstan and Bashkortostan, two ethnic autonomous republics in the center of Russia. There are strong nationalist organizations in these republics-Azatlyk (Union of Tatar Youth) and Bashkir Kuk Bure (Heavenly Wolf)-which call for unity with other Turkic-speaking and Finno-Ugric peoples of the region. Both still keep the memory of the capture of Kazan by Ivan the Terrible, which occurred in 1552 and led to the fact that for five hundred years there has been a sense of loss in both republics. As we saw during the Russian-Chechen wars of the 1990s and early 2000s, in which tens of thousands of people died, separatist movements in Russia can be bloody and prolonged. These may not be only ethnic minorities: ethnic Russians living in Siberia, the Urals and the Far East, rich in natural resources, have tried several times to achieve independence, and the Kremlin's predatory policy in these regions contributes to this in every possible way.

Under Putin's successor, the country's tense unity may finally give way to these separatist plans. One can only guess who will be the next ruler, but it is likely that Putin will personally choose him or her at the very end of his term of office, and it is unclear whether this successor will be able to continue the strong grip that Putin held on various groups and regions. And, in the absence of a system of checks and balances or any other strong institutions in Russia, this level of control may simply be necessary to ensure the existence of the country as a whole. So Vyacheslav Volodin, deputy head of the Kremlin administration, can see how his famous words come true: "If there is Putin, there is Russia; if there is no Putin , there is no Russia."

Secondly, the unifying ideology of Russia today simply does not have the power that its predecessors possessed. Vladislav Surkov, a long-time Putin aide, claims that Russia has entered a new historical stage: "Putin's long state" (a global ideology that, according to him, is as attractive to followers as Marxism). In fact, Putinism is a fiery mixture of Eurasianism and what the Russian ultraconservative philosopher Alexander Dugin calls the fourth political theory. Eurasianism is a school of thought that emerged in the 1920s among Russian anti-communist emigrants. He [Dugin] stands for the exclusive and messianic role of Russia as a civilization that exists on its own terms, which is not part of either the East or the West. The fourth political theory is designed to unite the" best " of fascism and communism in a new crusade against liberalism. Dugin proposes to remove atheism and the equal distribution of wealth from communism and racism from fascism, continuing mainly their joint mission.

Despite the fact that such an ideology may seem frightening, it is not comparable [in its strength] with either Tsarism or Marxism-Leninism, the two ideologies that previously dominated in Russia. The sacredness of the Tsar has been a real bond for the Russian people for many centuries. Marxist-Leninist ideas of equality and the distribution of wealth were really attractive in many countries in the post-colonial era.

Finally, the current intellectual and economic conditions in Russia pale in comparison with the situation during the tsarist Empire or the Soviet Union. Under the tsarist regime, Europeans came to Russia to practice medicine, teach at universities, conduct research and open a business. The Soviet government created a relatively comfortable life for some leading scientists (as long as they did not go against the system). Today, higher education and science in Russia are in a catastrophically miserable state. The economy is based on the pumping of natural resources and shows no signs of modernization. The most significant sign is that the children of the Russian elite prefer to study and live in the West.

The world should be ready for the collapse of Russia.