No.404743
Ethiopian here. TPLF is primarily an ethnonationalist armed group that used a bastardisation of socialist principles to divide a diverse country on ethnic lines and enrich themselves in the process.
Ethiopia has some 85+ different ethnic groups. The tplf arose in the 70s in opposition to the communist Derg regime. The derg, for all their flaws, had a truly pan-ethnic ethos - a lot of the leadership were from minority or historically marginalised groups. because the derg was killing so many damn people, insurgencies starting growing in strength. the tplf was one of these. they're from the region where ethiopian civilization basically originated (axumite empire, dmt) but for various reasons, the centre of power moved from there.
in their manifesto, they identified one ethnic group, the amhara as their eternal enemy - amharas are related to tigres, and dominated the old empire after the decline of Axum. of course 95+ percent of them were landless serfs.
the tplf, with other ethnonationalist rebel groups defeated the derg in 1991. when they came to power, they divided the country on ethnic lines - there were 11 or 12 "states" in which only the people identified as "indigenous" could own land. now this was a problem in Ethiopia because so much of the population is mixed between ethnicities, people have migrated to different parts of the country for centuries, and a pan-ethnic cosmopolitan inclusive identity did exist, and allowed the country to remain independent in the face of colonialism.
although in theory they claimed that the system they were creating was to correct historical oppression and end the domination of one group over the other, in practice, they monopolised power within the hands of people of their ethnic group (about 6 per cent of the population). over half the generals, most of the special forces, were from that ethnic group. people i personally knew, their families got rich for being affiliated with the tplf and getting lucrative government contracts/access to zero interest loans from state banks. the tplf essentially created an oligarch class from people of their ethnic group - it appears from the beginning, their endgame was eventual separation from ethiopia.
people opposed them pretty much from the beginning of their time in power. in 2005, an election was held, in which preliminary results showed the tplf getting its ass handed to them across the board, and especially in the capital, with people voting for anti-sectarian, unionist parties en masse. they hijacked the vote counting process and eventually declared victory - people protested, and there was a bloody crackdown which killed hundreds.
in 2012, tplf's leader and architect of their ethnic federalist system died. this was the beginning of the end of their time in power - his replacement was a token minority with little power. the entrenched tplf elite still basically called the shots. protests increased throughout the mid-2010s and the puppet pm resigned. in steps abiy ahmed.
i'm no fan of abiy at all with his neolib inclinations and general evangelical retardation. i'm not even sure what his agenda really is. but in the last three years, people have been backing him. tplf retained power in tigray and used the last few years to build up an armed force - the tplf-created constitution allows each federal subject to have its own "special police", essentially allowing each region to have its own armed forces separate from the national army. according to their own claims, they had a 250k man fighting force last year.
at the same time, ethnic violence across the country was escalating, possbily encouraged by tplf actors. amhara peasants have been targetted and murdered by oromo extremists for their connection to the imperial past, even though the majority were and still are dirt poor peasants. oromo extremists also killed ethnic somalis and people of smaller ethnic groups. extremists from the gumuz ethnic group have also targetted amharas, oromos and agews for the same reason (being "settlers", "colonizers" etc), possibly sponsored by egypt (this is happening in the same province the dam is being built in).
in november, the tplf used its "special police" to attack the national army stationed in tigray. at first they claimed the army defected, then admitted they did a "lightning strike" to incapacitate the army and seize heavy weaponry. their official line is that they did this anticipating an "invasion" by the army (lol the army invading its own country) but had the army really been preparing for such an op, i doubt they would have been caught unprepared and rolled over in November.
i think the tplf expected to march straight back to addis in november, but they were quickly overturned by a combination of the national army, "special police" from other regions and peasant militias. in 3 weeks, they had lost every urban centre in tigray. i should also mention in the first week of the war they did a pretty horrendous massacre in mai kadra - they deny this, however the victims were from other ethnic groups (primarily amharas) and for me, the smoking gun is how none of the tplf affiliates I know (including the daughter of one their main commanders and former chief of staff of the whole ethiopian army) even mention the incident in their propaganda releases on social media.
however, then the real shit started: they basically activated their population to fight the national army. here's where their pseudo-maoist roots come in with the whole protracted peoples war and stuff - they hid arms and ammunition everyhwere, peoples houses, churches, graveyards, and used those to attack the army. the army retaliated in the characteristically heavy handed way and started doing terrible things - executing any young men they could find in the aftermath of attacks, all that kind of stuff.
apparently this pushed people to join the tplf - and i'm sure this was their plan. i'm sure this was their thinking behind the mai kadra massacre too, to invite retaliation on the civilian population. all the while, they launched a properly concerted effort on social media to shed light on the alleged genocide happening in tigray - they've also obviously hired some lobbying groups in the US (trust me, I personally know many of these people and they're insanely rich, living in the west) so the international spotlight is on us. in june, they appear to have scored a big victory over our army.
abiy ahmed has many many fucking questions to answer, but wont. people are worried that this may bring about the disintegration of the country. during the tplf's 27 years in power, they actively weakened any unionist, inclusive identity as being "amhara fascism and chauvinism" and actively deepened sectarian divides. this is all bearing fruit now. people are mobilising in every corner of the country to fight the tplf (they are despised by literally the whole country) but they are making advances lately. the situation is precarious.